Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles preview, prediction: in writing
A breakdown that is statistical of Lions’ Week 3 matchup.
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The Detroit Lions additionally the Philadelphia Eagles are since close to 2-0 because they are to 0-2. Both groups discovered themselves trailing in all of their first couple of games, and both been employed by their solution to perhaps the rating. When it comes to Eagles, their heroic comeback on Sunday evening had been ruined by a large protective gaffe in the last short while. Meanwhile, the Lions’ blew a 18-point lead against the Cardinals and may just muster a tie after that.
Both groups have strive to do in order to eclipse the present teams that are undefeated their particular divisions, but both undoubtedly aspire to be into the playoff battle come December. Which means this game could certainly possess some severe implications for tiebreakers—assuming, into the Lions situation, that another playoff contender features a tie.
So who has got the bonus on Sunday? Let’s look in the matchup. In Writing.
Lions pass offense (22nd in DVOA in 2018) vs. Eagles pass protection (fifteenth)
This year’s DVOA: Lions (8th) vs. Eagles (23rd)
This is our week that is final that simply just take 2018 data under consideration. Just last year, the Lions moving offense began strong, but following the trade of Golden Tate therefore the problems for Marvin Jones, things quickly dropped aside.
This current year, things turn to be brighter for Matthew Stafford and business, particularly under brand brand new unpleasant coordinator Darrell Bevell. Stafford happens to be particularly proficient at play action:
One big section of the #Lions game that is passing? The play-action pass. Matthew Stafford is 16-of-21 off play fakes thus far this through two games year. Be prepared to see a lot more than a number of these kinds of playcalls from #OnePride on Sunday. It is a big element of exactly what they are doing. #DETvsPHI pic.twitter.com/FyojxxFXku
The Lions were proficient at distributing the ball around, too. Six players that are different at minimum four catches through two games and four various receivers have actually touchdowns. In contrast, zero Bears players have actually caught a touchdown (sorry, couldn’t assist myself.)
Presently, the Lions rank 10th in passer score (102.6), t-eighth in yards per effort (8.4) and they are seventeenth in conclusion portion (65.3). They’ve been specially proficient at getting amount plays through the atmosphere, with 11 performs for 20+ yards (t-third) and also have just permitted three sacks (t-eighth).
This past year, the Eagles pass protection had been pretty typical, though they recovered very well into the last half associated with the season—a pattern which will emerge with this 2018 Eagles group.
This season, they’re down to a different start that is slow. The rest of the raw data should be somewhat unsettling for Eagles fans though they created a few turnovers last week against the Falcons. They’re presently 20th passer rating permitted (98.8), t-21st in yards per effort (8.0) and sixteenth in conclusion portion (65.5).
Despite Jim Schwartz’s aggressive protection, the Eagles have just handled two sacks in the years, but they’re still quite definitely effective at producing stress.
Golladay had their breakout game of the year the other day against an extremely skilled cornerback in Casey Hayward Jr. An eight-catch, 117-yard performance is impressive, but carrying it out against an excellent young part is a complete various degree. Ronald Darby, too, is definitely an impressive part, but he’s down to a horrible begin to 2019. Can it be just a slow start or perhaps is Darby still experiencing the consequences of their torn ACL from 2018? Time will tell.
Advantage: Lions +1.5
Protection is likely to be key right here, as Brandon Graham is certainly another player which could impact this matchup greatly. We’re nevertheless unsure just who will soon be playing tackle that is left week as Taylor Decker remains restricted in training. The other day, their replacement, Tyrell Crosby, did an excellent job in security, and also the Lions unpleasant line, overall, rebounded in a way that is big.
So far, Bevell has seemed the component as a good unpleasant coordinator, and also the Lions’ passing game appears revitalized. Going against a beat-up, mediocre-at-best Philly additional, we have medium confidence the Lions should win this matchup.
Lions run offense (25th) vs. Eagles operate protection (9th)
This year’s DVOA: Lions (28th) vs. Eagles (2nd)
The Lions happen operating the ball great deal, but they’ve been anything but efficient with those runs—and that matches just what we saw when it comes to a lot of the 2018 period. The Lions are frantically shuffling their backfield as a result. They’ve currently cut veteran C.J. Anderson (16 carries, 43 yards) and included J.D. McKissic and Paul Perkins considering that the roster that is initial set.
The Lions’ inside offensive linemen appear become doing their work acceptably, but Detroit has really struggled to block from the sides, and that includes rough play from their newly-transformed end room that is tight. Should they can fall lined up, we’re able to finally see Kerryon Johnson perform during the amounts he did this past year, but to date it is often slim pickings.
Detroit is averaging simply 3.5 yards per carry (t-25th) and it is presently making very first downs on a measly 18.3 per cent of carries (24th). The Lions are currently certainly one of 12 groups with no rush of 20+ yards.
The Eagles operate protection ended up being my explanation an unit that is top-10 year, and so they could be better still this season. They’re currently fourth in yards per carry allowed (2.8), 3rd in yards permitted (85) and very first in first down percentage (10.0%).
The reason that is only doubt this device may be the current loss in protective tackle Timmy Jernigan. Combined with loss in Malik Jackson to IR, the Eagles are down seriously to their 4th sequence tackle that is defensive.
However the Eagles nevertheless have actually.
Player to look at: Fletcher Cox.
While Cox is many known for their quickness and capability to hurry the passer, he’s no slouch being a run defender, either. The exact same really can be stated for Brandon Graham, too. That protective front side is nevertheless extremely beneficial to Philly, despite having the accidents.
Advantage: Eagles +2.5.
There clearly was some small hope that the Lions will get straight right right back on the right track this week. It truly may seem like for each run they’re only an inches that are few from breaking down a huge one. Also, the problems for Jernigan will definitely affect the video game.
Nevertheless, the amount that is overwhelming of proof points for this being fully a matchup greatly within the benefit for the Eagles. That won’t stop the Lions from wanting to run the ball, but i’dn’t expect this to function as the week that Kerryon Johnson breaks down.
Eagles pass offense (11th) vs. Lions pass protection (31st)
This year’s DVOA: Eagles (10th) vs. Lions (10th)
Whether it had been Carson Wentz or Nick Foles, the Eagles had no issue tossing on fools this past year. This present year, it seems to become more of the same, although a week ago ended up being certainly a data point that is interesting.
The eagles had to deal with sudden injuries to DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert and Alshon Jeffery, severely altering their game plan against the Falcons on one hand. They demonstrably played far better when you look at the half that is second the initial.
Having said that, Wentz made some terrible errors at the beginning of that game, and also the Eagles’ pass protection seemed extremely shaky against an admittedly impressive atlanta front side.
The Eagles will definitely be shorthanded along with their unpleasant tools this week—with their top two receivers most likely for it this time out—but they will have had a full week to prepare.
Detroit’s offseason want to turn their pass defense around seemingly have worked so far. Though at times the Cardinals and Chargers appeared to be in a position to pick apart the additional, when it comes to part that is most, the Lions have won those matchups.
As a result of play that is solid No. 2 cornerback Rashaan Melvin (he leads the league with five pass breakups) and some dazzling performs through the Lions’ playmakers (Darius Slay, Tracy Walker), the Lions pass protection presently ranks eighth in passer score allowed (74.4), 13th in yards per effort (6.7) and t-fourth in conclusion portion allowed (55.6).